Remember when Pixar movies used to be “can’t miss” big-screen events? Yeah, me neither. It’s been a rough road for the company as of late. While Inside Out 2 was an absolute smash, before it came along there was a long string of “meh” Pixar movies. Some were pretty good, such as the underrated Elemental, but others, like Luca or Lightyear, lacked any of the magic once associated with the brand, and the same is certainly true for this week’s release, Elio. As explained in our review, Elio reeks of a movie that underwent a ton of reworking and toning down, and the result is perhaps the studio’s worst movie, and as such, it’s widely expected to lay an egg at the box office. It’s unlikely to open any higher than third place this weekend, with about $30 million – if the studio is lucky.
Barring a last-minute turnaround, it looks as though the battle for number one will be fought between How to Train Your Dragon and 28 Weeks Later. Both have earned good reviews, and Dragon, in its second weekend, has the edge, as it earned a spectacular A CinemaScore rating, and appeals to a broad audience. It should easily make $40 million. But, don’t discount the appeal of 28 Years Later, with it, Danny Boyle’s long-awaited return to a franchise that revitalized the zombie genre. The reviews are great (read ours here), and it should manage a strong $35 million opening. Hopefully it does well enough that by the time the weekend is over, Sony will green light the third film in the planned trilogy, which Danny Boyle has stated they’re still trying to fund.
Meanwhile, Materialists, after a strong opening last weekend, should dip below Lilo & Stitch, which seems likely to make about $9 million. The big question will be whether fifth place goes to Materialists or Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning. I’m going to give Materialists, based on word-of-mouth, the edge, with it looking at about $7 million in its second weekend.
Here are our predictions:
- How to Train Your Dragon: $40 million
- 28 Years Later: $35 million
- Elio: $30 million
- Lilo & Stitch: $9 million
- Materialists: $7 million
What are you seeing this weekend? Let us know in the comments.
