STAR WARS, for the most part, is a money train. With the exception of 2018's SOLO: A STAR WARS STORY, every STAR WARS film released since Disney took over has taken in over $1 billion worldwide. In the case of 2015's THE FORCE AWAKENS it was actually twice that. Last week joblo reported that STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER sold more tickets in the first hour of presales than AVENGERS: ENDGAME for Atom Tickets, and came in second to the Marvel megahit when twenty-four hours had passed. Well it seems that long range opening weekend projections aren't quite as lucrative for the conclusion to the Skywalker saga.
The website Box Office Pro – which predicts long range box office numbers – currently projects THE RISE OF SKYWALKER to take in between $185 to $225 million opening weekend. If SKYWALKER hits on the low-end ($185 million) it would be the lowest opening for any of the films in the new trilogy. However, it is important to note that if the new trilogy capper hits on the high-end ($225 million), it would beat THE LAST JEDI's opening weekend. The much maligned follow-up to THE FORCE AWAKENS raked in $220 million domestic in it's first weekend.
Now there are a couple of things to keep in mind when analyzing these numbers. The first is that THE RISE OF SKYWALKER's release date (December 20) is a little later than the two previous installments, putting it closer to Christmas Day. Holiday traveling and last minute shopping could be playing a role in these numbers. In addition, financial analysis of the last two STAR WARS trilogies shows a pattern where the initial film opens huge, the second film dips in terms of box office, and then the final movie rebounds nicely. It's very likely that THE RISE OF SKYWALKER will follow that same pattern. The film also has the added incentive of being the last in the nine film Skywalker saga, so that has to count for something.
One last thing to note regarding the potential box office numbers of RISE OF SKYWALKER is that its current projections are exactly the same as THE FORCE AWAKENS were in 2015. The film ended up crushing those numbers, totaling $247 million opening weekend and eventually $936.7 million domestically. So take that for what it's worth.
It's likely these numbers will change as we get closer to THE RISE OF SKYWALKER's release date and for my money (pun intended) I think these projections will go higher. Regardless, all I"m looking for is an entertaining and satisfying conclusion to this nine film saga.
STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER starring Daisy Ridley, John Boyega, Adam Driver, Oscar Isaac, Carrie Fisher, and Mark Hamill, jumps into hyperspace and into theaters December 20.
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