It’s official, folks — we are entering the dog days of summer. People’s vacations are coming to an end, and the kids are getting ready for a return to school. As such, the studios are pulling back on the blockbusters, with the next few weeks devoted to smaller-scale movies — the exception being this weekend’s The End of Oak Street. Warner Bros. is likely hoping for another late-summer hit, with the studio having had a lot of success last August with Weapons, which became a sleeper hit. The End of Oak Street has a lot going for it: good reviews (including our own), dinosaurs, plus Anne Hathaway and Ewan McGregor.
But does it have a prayer against Spider-Man: Brand New Day?
One thing is certain — Brand New Day will take the top spot this weekend, with it quickly becoming one of the highest-grossing films of all time. It will make a minimum of $70 million, with it having a real shot at $75 million on the high end. For most movies, that would be a great OPENING, but this is Spider-Man in its THIRD WEEK. By Sunday night, its domestic total might be north of $800 million.
So where does that leave The End of Oak Street? Hopefully in a strong second place, with WB hoping for an opening north of $20 million, which wouldn’t be bad for a movie that only cost $80 million (reportedly). Still, the curious lack of buzz makes me wary of whether they can actually pull it off, with the studio having been on a huge cold streak this year following The Bride, Supergirl, Evil Dead Burn, and other movies that underperformed. I’m guessing $18 million, but I hope I’m wrong.
My thinking is that The Odyssey will be the movie that pulls off $20 million this weekend, consigning The End of Oak Street to third place, which would be disastrous for WB. The Odyssey has been a runaway smash, and with IMAX 70mm locations still sold out, it doesn’t seem like demand is going anywhere. The family-focused PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie will likely hit fourth place with about $12 million, while Angel Studios is hoping for a $5 million start for the fact-based drama The Brink of War, which has a superb cast led by Jeff Daniels as Ronald Reagan and Jared Harris as Gorbachev.
Here are our predictions:
- Spider-Man: Brand New Day: $75 million
- The Odyssey: $20 million
- The End of Oak Street: $18 million
- PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie: $12 million
- The Brink of War: $5 million
What are you seeing this weekend? Let us know in the comments.
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