It’s been a pretty grim start to the year as far as the box office goes. Captain America: Brave New World only did modest business (and will be one of the lower-grossing Marvel movies), while films like Den of Thieves 2: Pantera, Flight Risk, One of Them Days, and a few others did quite well, but were only ever designed as modest performers. This weekend is the release of the year’s second big “event” movie – Mickey 17, which marks Bong Joon Ho’s first film since winning an Oscar for Parasite. It’s also Robert Pattinson’s first role since The Batman (although he’s got a busy 2025-26 in-store).
Yet, despite the fact that it cost well over $100 million and has earned great reviews (we mostly enjoyed it), nobody’s expecting the film to do all that much business. Indeed, box office forecasters are predicting a start in the mid-20s, and that’s about what I’m thinking too. I’m thinking Mickey 17 will earn about $23 million. Why isn’t it going to perform better? Likely, it has a lot to do with the film’s satiric, quasi-comic bent. American audiences prefer a more meat-and-potatoes approach to sci-fi, while Bong Joon Ho has a different sensibility. The movie is performing well in South Korea and will likely turn a profit for the studio, but in North America, the film seems destined for more of a cult-style appreciation.
Otherwise, Captain America: Brave New World should hold on to second place with another underwhelming weekend. I expect it to make somewhere in the $7 million range. Last Breath has a chance of hitting third place with about $4 million, while The Monkey shouldn’t be far behind with $3 million, while Paddington in Peru should make in the $2.5 million range. Overall, it seems like a pretty grim weekend if you consider that at this time last year we had Dune: Part Two burning up the box office. Nothing coming out in the next few weeks seems destined to make too much of an impact, so 2025 is off to a bad start.
My Predictions:
- Mickey 17: $23 million
- Captain America: Brave New World: $7 million
- Last Breath: $4 million
- The Monkey: $3 million
- Paddington in Peru: $2.5 million
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