Box Office Predictions Morbius

We’re really starting to see some healthy runs at the box office. The Batman dominated most of March with a three-week run at number one while Sandra Bullock’s The Lost City claimed the top spot last week with a stellar opening for both the female demographic and comedies. This weekend will see another number one champ but the ultimate question remains: After all of the delays and lukewarm early reactions, what box office heights will Sony’s Morbius reach this weekend?

Morbius, which expands on Sony’s Marvel/Spider-Man universe, was originally slated to hit screens in 2020 but the COVID-19 pandemic did this film very dirty. Morbius has seen several release dates before landing on April Fool’s Day of all days this weekend. While it seemed like this film would never see the light of day, it’s finally here but it’s hard to really gauge how much hype is surrounding the film.

At one point, Morbius was supposed to hit screens before Venom: Let There Be Carnage and Spider-Man: No Way Home. There could be an upside to the film now arriving after those releases because both were hugely successful and that success could shine a bit on Morbius. I’m still scratching my head as to why the film shifted from its late January release date this year to April 1, 2022. Spider-Man: No Way Home built up so much box office momentum and goodwill for Morbius that it only made sense to take advantage of it. No Way Home recently cleared $800 million at the domestic box office but its theatrical run is slowing down. Morbius now has to survive a bit on its own merits and the presence of Jared Leto. Is that enough? Let’s explore!

Jared Leto isn’t a box office draw on his own. His name alone won’t make Morbius a success so now we have to look at the character itself. Comic book fans know of Morbius but he isn’t exactly a household name to casual moviegoers. That’s another hurdle the film has to overcome. Morbius is going to have to look like a real good time to get people interested and that’s the problem with all of the delays. We have seen trailers for this film since 2020. It almost has the same problem that The King’s Man had when it opened back in December. So many trailers ran over a long period of time due to the delays and it almost felt we had seen the film already. In fact, if you explore some social media, some people are happy Morbius is finally coming out because they’re tired of seeing trailers for it.

Early reactions to Morbius that began trickling out last week haven’t been all that positive and there is some discrepancy about the end credit scenes and the film eliminating the Easter Eggs that were in the trailers which tied it more closely to Spider-Man and the MCU. I haven’t seen the film yet so I can’t confirm if this is true or not but I’m currently hearing mixed things on this. Could be an exaggeration on the part of fans that aren’t invested in the film being successful. The upside to the uncertainty is that it could build interest enough to get people to see just how connected the film actually is to the MCU. Curiosity does make an impact at the box office.

Despite some of my naysaying, I also think there is enough here to result in a solid opening. Even though this is a Sony release, it has the Marvel banner attached to it, and that carries some weight at the box office. There have also been A LOT of comparisons to Venom and even though critics weren’t exactly kind to those two films, they were both hugely successful with moviegoers thanks to the movies simply appealing to the target demographic. Venom had a 30% rotten score on Rotten Tomatoes back in 2018 and it still opened to $80.2 million before finishing its run with $213.5 million domestic and $856 million worldwide. Morbius won’t reach those heights. Venom had much larger brand recognition but the comparison still works in regards to, even if Morbius craters critically, it could still connect with moviegoers. Sony was also smart to keep the budget low on this one at $75 million before marketing spend and that makes the bar for success a bit lower. Box office tracking has the film debuting as low as $33 million and as high as $40 million. I’m going to predict a $45 million opening for Morbius and it will certainly be one to watch this weekend to see if it matches these goals or exceeds them.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gkcV0YnclI8&t=4s

The Lost City will slip to second this weekend but it should still be a top choice for the female demographic, a demo that came out in a big way to allow the comedy to take the number one spot with a gross of $30.5 million last week. Much like The Batman did most of March,The Lost City has its particular audience to itself and that will be beneficial for its box office run in the weeks ahead. I’m predicting about $18 million for its second weekend.

The Batman will take third place this weekend and this is the first time the film will face direct competition from a similar film. Morbius will bleed SOME of The Batman’s audience since they’re both in the world of comic book movie adaptations but this could be something that might only toy with business on Friday and some of Saturday. If Morbius is no good, The Batman will likely get some of that audience back throughout the weekend. I still think The Batman will hold well so I’m predicting a gross of $13.5 million this weekend.

We should see Uncharted in fourth place this weekend as it continues its impressive box office run. Sony will likely have two films in the top five with Morbius and this movie which honestly speaks to a very good winning streak for Sony during the pandemic box office. They began their streak last October with Venom: Let There Be Carnage ($90 million opening), and that was followed by Ghostbusters: Afterlife ($44 million opening) and then the granddaddy of them all, Spider-Man: No Way Home ($260.1 million opening). That was the latter half of 2021 alone before Uncharted opened this year with $44 million. It seems like Uncharted is slowing down its run a bit as its digital release is soon approaching but I think the film has enough in it for about $3.2 million this weekend.

Rounding out the top five, we could see Dog hop back into the mix for a little bit now that the one-weekend novelty releases like RRR and Jujutsu Kaisen 0: The Movie are falling down the chart. Dog is another film slowing down its run but what a run it has been. The film has grossed $58.1 million to date at the domestic box office and $70.1 million worldwide. I’m predicting that Dog may add another $1.5 million to its grosses.

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