Box Office Predictions: Taylor Swift to dominate the weekend

This weekend sees just one release, but it is a big one. Taylor Swift swoops into theaters with a theatrical production of her Era’s Tour concert that has raked in over two billion dollars worldwide making it the highest grossing tour of all time. When tickets for the tour went on sale, it crashed almost all ticketing sites and became a hot button issue for fans who couldn’t get tickets. Of course in today’s world the price for tickets to concerts of this magnitude can hit upwards of a thousand dollars so Swift and AMC partnered together to record and release a version of the concert to theaters so fans could still get a chance to see the record breaking tour at a reasonable cost.

Of course none of this was known just a month ago as the film was a surprise announcement just about three weeks ago which forced The Exorcist: Believer to abandon its Friday The 13th release date so that Taylor Swift could release her film on the date with her favorite number (which is apparently 13. Whereas I can admit I enjoy some of Swift’s music, I can’t say I know much about her, except for her entire dating history!) When tickets for the concert went on sale, they pretty quickly sold out with fans wanting to be among the first to see this concert film in theaters. Of course those fans kind of got screwed over yesterday when it was announced the film would in fact have Thursday previews, and now all of those people who bought tickets for Fridays supposed first showings can’t claim they are super fans who saw the first showings of Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour. They are just regular fans, ew!

This release appears to be a massive event for theaters. Ticket prices are at a premium with AMC not allowing the film to be part of their A-List program (meaning if you want to see the film, you gotta shell out some greenbacks.) Those ticket prices and unrivaled demand is seeing Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour having better pre-sales than films like Barbie and Spider-Man: No Way Home ($162 million and $260.1 million opening weekends respectively.) Although don’t expect this one to hit an opening weekend in the Spider-Man range. I doubt it will even hit the opening numbers of Barbie. Of course with over $100 million in pre-sales this one should be able to hit $130 with ease and could easily go way higher. It all depends on what type of walk up business there is. Is this the type of event where the people who really wanted to see it already purchased their tickets? 

Concert films have had a hit or miss time at theaters with the biggest one at the worldwide box office being Michael Jackson’s This is It film released after the legendary singer passed away which pulled in over $261 million with $72 million of that coming from North American theaters. While the highest grossing domestic release of all time is Justin Bieber: Never Say Never which pulled in just over $73 million. Obviously Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour has already surpassed that number but it will be interesting to see how high this film flies this weekend and what type of legs it has in the coming weeks.

With a massive movie like Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour hitting screens this weekend, it means all other films will likely feel the burn and the movie that will most feel that scorch is The Exorcist: Believer which saw an underwhelming debut last weekend with some absolutely horrendous reviews including a 4/10 from our own Chris Bumbray. Fan reaction wasn’t much better with the film receiving a 53% audience score and a C cinemascore. I don’t think this one will suffer a drop like David Gordon Green’s last film, Halloween Ends, which saw an 80% decline in its second weekend. That movie was available day and date on Peacock which definitely added to its horrific drop. Exorcist: Believer is a theatrical only event (for now, as some reports have the film hitting PVOD on October 24) and should have a slightly better hold. I expect a drop of at least 60%, probably closer to 65% with the weekend coming in around $10 million.

The remainder of the top five should simply see holdover titles like Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie, Saw X and The Creator shift down by a spot while there is another movie hitting screens this weekend that I am very excited about: Anatomy of a Fall which won the Palm d’Or at this years Cannes Film Festival while also becoming a genuine box office hit in its native France. The film, which is France’s submission for this years International Film category at the Academy Awards, will see a limited release this weekend as it begins a slow roll out over the next few weeks.

Are you excited for the Taylor Swift movie, or will you be using this weekend to take in a different film? Let us know in the comments and don’t forget to check back with us on Saturday when we have a brief update on where the box office numbers are heading.

TOP FIVE PREDICTIONS

1. Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour– $130 Million
2. The Exorcist: Believer– $10 Million
3. Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie– $6 Million
4. Saw X– $5 Million
5. The Creator– $3 Million