Just like last year, when the failure of Joker: Folie a Deux cast a dark shadow over October’s box office, it seems like nothing is really connecting in movie theatres this month as far as revenue is concerned. Two well-received star vehicles, The Smashing Machine and Roofman, performed pretty terribly, while Disney’s big-budget Tron: Ares once again proved this is a franchise that’s niche at best. No wonder Netflix is re-releasing K-pop Demon Hunters this Halloween weekend, as theatre owners need a surefire hit.
However, with spooky season approaching, Blumhouse is banking on audiences being in the mood for some horror, with them opening their highly anticipated The Black Phone 2 this weekend. The original was a sleeper hit, grossing over $23 million its opening weekend, and having serious legs, to the point that it grossed about $90 million domestically (with a global total of over $160 million) all on a $16 million budget. It was proof positive that the Blumhouse formula (low budget – high concept) could pay handsome dividends if done right.
Yet, Blumhouse has suffered from a long series of flops with bigger bets like Wolf Man, Woman in the Yard, Drop, and their pricey sequel M3GAN 2.0 all flopping at the box office. The Black Phone 2 should break their cold streak, with it on track for a $20 million opening. This will be an acceptable result, but there’s no way it will have the kind of legs the original had, as people seem confused about why Ethan Hawke’s The Grabber is back, given his death in the original (read our mixed review). Folks may also be put off by how little screen time Hawke has, although since the first movie, Mason Thames has become a rising star, with the live-action How to Train Your Dragon reboot being one of the summer’s big hits. Ironically, he has another movie, Regretting You, opening next weekend.
Otherwise, Tron: Ares should make about $15 million in second place, with it likely to drop 50-60% in week two. The writing is on the wall for the franchise at this point. Aziz Ansari’s Good Fortune may open in the $10 million range due to Keanu Reeves’ starring role as an angel. However, reviews (including ours) have been mixed, and the track record for comedy at the box office lately hasn’t been the best.
Amazon/MGM’s awards-hopeful After the Hunt should open in fourth place with about $6 million. Reviews have been mixed, and it is likely another star-driven awards movie people wait to check out on streaming. Roofman should be in fifth place with about $5 million.
Here are our predictions:
- The Black Phone 2: $20 million
- Tron: Ares: $15 million
- Good Fortune: $10 million
- After the Hunt: $6 million
- Roofman: $5 million
What are you seeing this weekend? Let us know in the comments!
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