Last weekend’s 66% drop for Fantasia Four: First Steps no doubt cast a shadow over Disney, with the film suddenly looking less like a breakout hit and more like another expensive underperformer. However, they’re bound to land another first-place movie this weekend, with Freakier Friday 2 set for a solid opening. While some think it could open north of $40 million, that number seems unlikely, with the film being rather coolly received by critics. As such, I’m expecting a finish in the $30 million range.
Warner Bros. should have a strong second-place showing with Zack Cregger’s Weapons, the director’s follow-up to Barbarian. Some believe it has a shot at beating Freakier Friday, but the summer hasn’t been all that great for horror, so I’m thinking a more modest $25 million is in the cards—although that would still be a great opening.
Fantastic Four should hold on to third place with about $18 million, while fourth place will be a battle between The Bad Guys 2 and The Naked Gun. I’m thinking family audiences will give The Bad Guys the edge, with around $15 million, while The Naked Gun should manage a solid hold and gross in the $9–10 million range.
All told, this is likely to be the last big weekend of the summer, with Nobody 2 probably the only opener in the next few weeks with breakout potential. The next big weekend will likely come just after Labor Day, with WB hoping to repeat their Beetlejuice Beetlejuice success by opening The Conjuring: Last Rites. Either way, after this weekend, the summer box office is going to start winding down, hopefully paving the way for a really strong fall season. That said, in September/ October last year we went through a very dry patch after Beetlejuice, so we’ll just have to see.
Here are our predictions:
- Freakier Friday: $30 million
- Weapons: $25 million
- Fantastic Four: First Steps: $18 million
- The Bad Guys 2: $15 million
- The Naked Gun: $10 million
Do you think either Freakier Friday or Weapons has a shot at crossing $30 million? Let us know in the comments!
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