Labor Day weekend is usually the slowest frame of the year—a notorious dumping ground where studios unload titles they don’t have much faith in. This year feels different, though. Sony is shaking things up with the wide release of Darren Aronofsky’s Caught Stealing, starring Austin Butler—a movie we loved.
Still, despite solid reviews, Caught Stealing faces the same problem that plagues almost every Labor Day release: people just aren’t around. It’s traditionally a bad weekend to launch anything big, as audiences head out of town, and theaters are resorting to discounted ticket prices to lure people in.
So, Weapons looks poised to reclaim the top spot after Kpop Demon Hunters stole it last weekend with a surprise $20 million sing-along release. I’m thinking Weapons takes first with around $11 million, with Caught Stealing close behind at about $9 million. That’s a soft start for such a strong film, but it feels like the kind of movie that could build a cult following down the road. Freaky Friday should land in third with about $7 million.
As for the other newcomers—The Toxic Avenger and The Roses—don’t expect fireworks. The Toxic Avenger is a niche play at best, likely around $5 million for fourth place. The Roses, a limp War of the Roses remake, probably won’t even clear $2 million and may get edged out by the Jaws 50th anniversary IMAX re-release, which could swim to about $3 million for fifth.
Here’s how I see the top five shaping up:
- Weapons – $11 million
- Caught Stealing – $9 million
- Freaky Friday – $7 million
- The Toxic Avenger – $5 million
- Jaws 50 IMAX – $3 million
What’s on your watchlist this weekend?
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