When Pixar’s Hoppers made $166 million in its domestic run, it was considered a more-than-decent result for the studio, whose films (outside of the mammoth Inside Out 2) have been floundering financially since the pandemic. However, their latest film, Toy Story 5, is likely going to come close to making in one weekend what Hoppers did in its entire run, with the film on track for a franchise-best opening.
Indeed, each Toy Story film has outgrossed the previous one, with Toy Story 4 grossing a healthy $120 million in its opening weekend back in 2019 (compared to $110 million for Toy Story 3 in 2010, $57 million in 1999, and $29.1 million in 1995). With good reviews and little-to-no competition for family audiences in theaters, the film will easily outgross Inside Out 2’s $154 million opening, with about $160 million. Some believe a $175 million start is possible, but to me that sounds a little rich. Even still, it will likely end the weekend as Pixar’s second-biggest opener ever, after The Incredibles 2, which opened with a huge $182 million. There hasn’t been a big animated movie since The Super Mario Bros. Movie back in April, so even if some warn of franchise fatigue (the kind that doomed The Mandalorian and Grogu), it shouldn’t hurt Pixar this time around.
The big question mark is how Steven Spielberg’s Disclosure Day will hold up. It had a solid opening, but word-of-mouth has been mixed, with social media reactions all over the place. Some are calling it a masterpiece, while others seem to think it’s Spielberg’s worst. Whatever the case, the movie needs to show some legs in order to turn a profit. I think it should do about $20 million, which would be a pretty mediocre hold, but it does feel to me like the people who wanted to see it went opening weekend.
It should still manage to beat Focus’s juggernaut, Obsession, which should do another $15 million this weekend, with it well past the $200 million mark as it marches its way toward a potential $300 million domestic finish (it’s not out of the question — the movie has legs). Not bad for a movie that cost $750,000. Scary Movie should hit fourth place with about $7 million, while A24’s The Death of Robin Hood should round out the top five with about $5 million, with it unlikely to make a huge impact outside the arthouse circuit (it seems like risky summer counter-programming).
Here are our predictions:
- Toy Story 5: $160 million
- Disclosure Day: $20 million
- Obsession: $15 million
- Scary Movie: $7 million
- The Death of Robin Hood: $5 million
What are you seeing this weekend? Let us know in the comments.
The comment section exists to allow readers to discuss the article constructively and respectfully, focused on the topic at hand.
What’s Not Allowed