Blumhouse took a bold swing by scheduling M3GAN 2.0 for a prime summertime release. The original film opened to an impressive $30 million, but it had the advantage of a quiet January debut with little-to-no competition. The sequel, however, is going head-to-head with Joseph Kosinski’s epic F1.
At the time the release dates were set, Blumhouse likely wasn’t too concerned. Early on, many predicted F1 would flop—Formula One doesn’t have a huge following in North America, and the film is produced by Apple Original Films, whose theatrical track record has been spotty at best.
But in the weeks leading up to release, buzz for F1 has skyrocketed. Apple and distributor Warner Bros. launched an aggressive early screening campaign, and the film has benefited from strong word of mouth. WB has already turned two seemingly risky bets—Minecraft: The Movie and Sinners—into big wins this year, and F1 looks to be another. Reviews have been glowing (including ours), with many dubbing it “the Top Gun: Maverick of racing.” While it may not open huge, a $50 million debut is very much in play, with even stronger numbers expected overseas. With the crowd-pleasing factor in full effect, F1 could turn into a surprise summer hit.
So where does that leave M3GAN 2.0? Unfortunately, it looks likely to disappoint. Word is the sequel pivots away from the horror roots that made the original such a hit, leaning more into sci-fi and action-adventure territory. While we enjoyed the film, horror fans can be notoriously protective of the genre, and the shift may not go over well. It could face a similar fate as Smile 2—an arguably better film than its predecessor, but one that takes creative swings horror audiences might not turn out for in theaters.
Our projections put M3GAN 2.0 at about two-thirds of the original’s opening, around $20 million. How to Train Your Dragon should come in third with a solid $18 million, while 28 Years Later and Pixar’s Elio are likely to follow closely behind.
Here are our weekend box office predictions:
- F1 – $50 million
- M3GAN 2.0 – $20 million
- How to Train Your Dragon – $18 million
- 28 Years Later – $15 million
- Elio – $12 million
What are you seeing this weekend? Let us know in the comments!
