Expect the unexpected. That seems to be the definitive description of the box office this fall, with a few huge surprises already shaking up the industry. The biggest shocker so far was The Conjuring: Last Rites opening with nearly double what anyone had predicted. But last weekend’s real twist was Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle, which stormed theaters with a jaw-dropping $70 million debut — the biggest anime opening of all time in North America.
This weekend, Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle is headed for the typical steep anime drop-off, but it should still dominate the top spot with around $25 million.
Second place will likely go to Him. Once considered a breakout contender thanks to its creepy trailers and Jordan Peele’s producing credit, early reviews have been poor (ours is coming later today). As a result, it looks set to debut in the $18 million range — solid, but not the breakout Universal hoped for.
Third place is locked for The Conjuring: Last Rites, which should scare up another $12 million as it cements its status as the highest-grossing entry in the franchise by a wide margin.
Fourth place looks shakier. Kogonada’s A Big Bold Beautiful Journey, starring Colin Farrell and Margot Robbie, was once considered an awards hopeful but skipped the fall festival circuit and now sits at just 44% on Rotten Tomatoes. Despite the star power — and Robbie’s first film since Barbie — the film is tracking for a muted $9 million. That would make it yet another box office stumble for Sony (though at least they can claim Demon Slayer as a win).
As for fifth place, it’s a toss-up. Angel Studios is rolling out The Senior, starring Michael Chiklis, but their non-religious pickups (it was produced independently) rarely connect with their base. The safer bet is Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale, which should take around $8 million and may even outgross Journey if word-of-mouth is strong.
Here are our predictions:
- Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle: $25 million
- Him: $18 million
- The Conjuring: Last Rites: $12 million
- A Big Bold Beautiful Journey: $9 million
- Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale: $8 million
What are you seeing this weekend? Let us know in the comments.
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