After a surprising takeover at the box office last weekend by the scrappy Terrifier 3, expect horror to once again rule the roost. Parker Finn’s eagerly anticipated horror sequel, Smile 2, is set to dominate the weekend box office, but despite some great reviews (including ours), the outlook for the movie is surprisingly middling.
The original Smile is one of the biggest success stories to emerge from the pandemic. Originally shot as a low-budget horror movie for Paramount Plus, the studio execs noticed how strong test screenings were. With the marketable smile gimmick, they gave it a theatrical release, and it ended up making over $200 million worldwide. The original film opened with $22.6 million, but despite being an even better movie than the original, the sequel likely won’t open quite as strongly.
At the moment, tracking suggests the film will open in the $15-20 million range, but I’m thinking that if Terrifier 3 can open with $18 million, there’s no reason Smile 2 can’t eke out $20 million. However, it can’t be denied that Damien Leone’s slasher flick will take a big bite out of Smile 2’s audience. Horror fans who didn’t turn out to see Terrifier 3 last weekend might find themselves torn between it and Smile 2. The latter will likely still perform strongly, as it’s a good horror date movie (Terrifier 3 is a touch too gruesome for that), but some horror fans might decide Art the Clown is the guy they want to spend the weekend with. As such, going deeper into spooky season I expect Terrifier 3 to make in the $10 million range.
Otherwise, The Wild Robot, despite being on PVOD, should have no trouble hitting third place, with about $8 million, while Beetlejuice Beetlejuice should do in the $5 million range. Joker Folie a Deux should tumble to fifth place with a horrifyingly bad $4 million weekend, on its way to a quick VOD bow.
Here are our predictions:
- Smile 2: $20 million
- Terrifier 3: $10 million
- The Wild Robot $8 million
- Beetlejuice Beetlejuice: $5 million
- Joker: Folie a Deux: $4 million
Do you think our numbers are right? Let us know in the comments!
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