The time has come! Just under seven years have passed since the last Star Wars film, The Rise of Skywalker, landed in theaters. Its reception from both fans and critics was bad enough that it seemingly put the whole on-screen saga on ice (although it still grossed over a billion dollars worldwide), but now the Force is back on the big screen with The Mandalorian & Grogu, which is daringly taking on the same Memorial Day frame that spelled doom for Solo: A Star Wars Story, which became the first (but, dare I say, not the last) Star Wars movie to actually lose money in theaters — something that would have been unheard of before Disney bought Lucasfilm.
Much has been written about how the franchise has been way overexposed thanks to a seemingly endless stream of streaming series, making the choice to make the first theatrical Star Wars movie in so many years a spin-off of The Mandalorian a bit of a head-scratcher. The box office forecast for this has been relatively poor, with it looking at only an $80 million weekend. While that would be a fine number for any other film, this is Star Wars. The early reviews have also been pretty underwhelming (ours goes up shortly), and the franchise just doesn’t seem to be connecting with viewers the way it used to.
Another issue is that, being so closely connected to a streaming series, The Mandalorian & Grogu is unlikely to attract anyone who hasn’t kept up with the show on Disney+. And how popular is The Mandalorian anyway? On Star Wars Day, Disney+ released a list of the 10 most popular Star Wars titles on the service, and The Mandalorian was absent — not a great sign.
However, even if The Mandalorian & Grogu tanks, another Star Wars movie is already set for 2027, with Ryan Gosling fronting Starfighter, which sounds like a legit standalone story — and with his star power, the Force might be a little stronger with that one.
As for the runner-up this weekend, my theory is that Michael will hold on to second place with about $18 million — but Obsession won’t be too far behind. Word of mouth on this one has been insane, with it turning into the water-cooler horror movie of the season. It’s been topping the box office all week, so I’m thinking it should make about $13 million, which would be a modest week-to-week decline (it could do even better). The Devil Wears Prada 2 should be in fourth with about $10 million, while Paramount’s new horror flick, Passenger, is looking at about $8 million — with its thunder having been stolen by Obsession. Boots Riley’s I Love Boosters is opening too, but that will likely land in the second half of the top 10 with around $5 million or so.
Here are our predictions:
- The Mandalorian and Grogu: $80 million
- Michael: $18 million
- Obsession: $13 million
- The Devil Wears Prada 2: $10 million
- Passenger: $8 million
The comment section exists to allow readers to discuss the article constructively and respectfully, focused on the topic at hand.
What’s Not Allowed