Just as we predicted earlier this week, Toy Story 5 is on its way to an absolutely mammoth opening. According to Deadline’s estimates, it will earn between $160 million and $170 million, which is higher than Inside Out 2‘s $154 million debut. It’s the biggest opening of the year so far and will be the second-highest opening in Pixar history, trailing only The Incredibles 2‘s $182.6 million launch.
It’s certainly a killer number for Pixar, and the A CinemaScore suggests it will have the legs to play throughout the summer. Inside Out 2 grossed more than $652 million domestically, and Toy Story 5 should easily top $600 million, with a shot at even reaching $700 million. Its only real competition for family audiences is Minions & Monsters, although it’s not expected to be as massive a hit. The same goes for Disney’s live-action remake of Moana.
However, Steven Spielberg’s Disclosure Day isn’t looking at quite as strong a hold as some had hoped, with the film likely to drop more than 60% in its second weekend for an estimated $17 million frame. That would bring its domestic total to roughly $78 million. It should still comfortably cross $100 million domestically, but I imagine many were hoping for a better hold. As expected, Obsession continues to perform strongly, with it only on track to fall 25% this weekend for a $14.2 million frame and an impressive $215 million domestic total.
This weekend’s new releases aren’t faring particularly well. Neon’s Leviticus is looking at around $3 million, which is an okay result. The issue is that horror audiences are still flocking to Obsession and Backrooms, making it difficult for any newcomer to break through while those films continue to dominate the conversation. Still, it’s doing much better than The Death of Robin Hood, which is headed for an abysmal $2.5 million debut, accompanied by a deadly C+ CinemaScore. Ouch. I don’t think audiences are embracing this grounded, gritty take on the character quite as much as I did.
What are you seeing this weekend? Let us know in the comments.
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