Box Office Predictions: Minions: The Rise of Gru looking to dominate the Fourth of July weekend

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We’re heading into the long holiday weekend and we only have one lone wide release in the form of Minions: The Rise of Gru. The film will easily dominate the Fourth of July weekend and it’s going to do the business that Pixar’s Lightyear wishes it did during its debut.

Minions: The Rise of Gru is coming from the Despicable Me franchise which has pulled in $3.7 billion worldwide for Illumination/Universal Pictures. I know this franchise was successful but I didn’t realize just HOW successful. The first Despicable Me, released in 2010, opened at $56.3 million while the 2013 sequel debuted at $83.5 million. 2017’s Despicable Me 3 came down from its predecessor but was still good with $72.4 million. What’s interesting is that spinoffs of these brands tend to open lower but not in the case of this franchise. 2015’s Minions is the biggest opener of the bunch with $115.7 million. That was even with the film scoring a rotten score of 55% on Rotten Tomatoes. Kids and families clearly like these characters and reviews really didn’t matter in the long run.

Some will look at the performance of Pixar’s Lightyear, which opened below expectations to $50.5 million despite tracking in the $70-80 million range. What’s clear is that Lightyear underperformed because Toy Story fans didn’t vibe with the spinoff and it didn’t attract new younger audiences. This was made even more abundantly clear when it tumbled 64% in its second weekend to $18.1 million. That film didn’t click but there is a built-in audience for Minions and all signs point to them coming out to check out their latest adventure. Reviews are even a bit better than the first Minions film at 64% fresh as of this writing. When factoring in the long holiday, I think Minions: The Rise of Gru will gross $90 million across the four-day weekend.

Top Gun: Maverick will likely maintain second place this weekend thanks to the patriotic holiday playing a role in some moviegoers wanting to experience the film again or for the first time. The film’s success of repeat business and audiences discovering the sequel after being a bit late to the party. I’m expecting the decline to be pretty soft for Top Gun: Maverick as it continues its insanely stellar box office run. I’m predicting about $34 million for Top Gun: Maverick over the four-day weekend.

Given the more broad appeal of Jurassic World: Dominion, I think it’s going to pull slightly ahead of Elvis this weekend to take third place. Despite Elvis claiming the top spot last weekend, I suspect the older-skewing nature of its audience won’t make for a great hold this weekend but it’s not going to completely crater either. I’m predicting about $23 million over the four-day weekend for Jurassic World: Dominion.

That means Elvis will fall to fourth this weekend but it’s still going to be a decent player with its demo. Weekday numbers have been solid and all signs point to the movie holding well enough down the road to either match its $85 million budget domestically by the end of its run or even surpass it. For the four-day weekend, I’m predicting about $22 million.

Rounding out the top five will be The Black Phone which is going to take a bit of a typical horror movie hit in weekend two but it’s already in the clear to turn a profit. The film’s $18 million budget has already been surpassed and it’s safe to already declare it a hit. I’m expecting The Black Phone to take in $15 million over the four-day weekend.

What are YOUR box office predictions this weekend?


  1. Minions: The Rise of Gru$90 million
  2. Top Gun: Maverick $34 million
  3. Jurassic World: Dominion$23 million
  4. Elvis $22 million
  5. The Black Phone$15 million

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