Last weekend was pretty heavy-duty for new releases, with Wuthering Heights, GOAT, and Crime 101 all vying for box office dollars. In the end, Wuthering Heights dominated the holiday weekend, but its four-day opening was a bit less than industry folks expected, and GOAT, surprisingly, was just a few million off from the top spot itself. As there are very few major new releases coming out this week, it seems like Sony’s GOAT has a good chance of claiming the top spot, relegating Wuthering Heights to second place.
One of the reasons it should easily come in first place is that family audiences have been somewhat underserved, so expect it to make about $20 million over the weekend. Wuthering Heights should come in second place with about $15 million, as it strikes me as the kind of movie that was front-loaded, especially given that it did a lot of its business on Valentine’s Day.
As for third place — this is where it gets interesting. There are three movies opening wide this weekend, but none of them are expected to set the world on fire. There’s the faith-based sequel I Can Only Imagine 2, the horror film Psycho Killer, and the Glen Powell-led How to Make a Killing.
Of the three, I Can Only Imagine 2 is the only one that has a real shot at third place, with it likely to gross about $12 million, which would be good for a faith-driven movie, as the genre’s box office results have been mixed as of late — with a couple of well-received examples like Ordinary Angels underperforming. The original I Can Only Imagine was a big hit, but it also came out at a time when there was less faith-based content in theaters. Now, with companies like Angel Studios, there is much more.
Fourth place will likely go to Amazon/MGM’s Crime 101, with about $8 million. Fifth will almost certainly go to holdover Send Help, which should make about $6 million, as it has shown tremendous legs at the box office. Psycho Killer, which comes from the same studio as Send Help — 20th Century Films — isn’t getting much of a build-up, with the theatrical run seeming like little more than promo for its eventual Hulu release. Meanwhile, the Glen Powell-led How to Make a Killing isn’t expected to make much more than $4–5 million, making it another soft result for the star, whose box office track record has been mixed.
Our predictions:
- GOAT: $20 million
- Wuthering Heights: $15 million
- I Can Only Imagine 2: $12 million
- Crime 101: $8 million
- Send Help: $6 million
What are you seeing this weekend? Let us know in the comments!
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