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JoBlo.com's Box-Office Predictions! (December 30-January 1)

Dec. 30, 2011by: Dave Davis
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It's always fascinating to observe the box office competition, the bloody Hollywood gladiatorial clash. To cheer for champions and underdogs, to speculate on tactics, or to hail the demise of the dreadful. And, of course, to witness the weekly reminders that success (or failure) isn't always an indicator of quality.

All through the week, JoBlo.com delivers news, reviews, rumors and opinions on everything about the movies. But when the weekend arrives, eyeballs tend to fall on the business side of show business to see how those all-important numbers tally.

Much like the weekend after Thanksgiving, this week offers no new releases and allows the current movies to continue their fight. And as with last week, the box office contends with a major holiday smack in the middle of business.

With that in mind, overall business probably won't be too much better or worse than last weekend when people were occupied with Christmas cheer and whatnot, but now they'll have New Year's Eve parties to attend on Saturday and the appropriate recovery period on Sunday.

But it's very likely that MISSION IMPOSSIBLE: GHOST PROTOCOL will continue its position at the top of the list. It's been ahead of the competition every day during this vacation week and will hit $100M by Friday, and I'd wager it can collect another $28M or so over the 3-day period.

It's a real tossup on the rest of the list, but SHERLOCK HOLMES: A GAME OF SHADOWS will probably place second again, with ALVIN AND THE CHIPMUNKS: CHIPWRECKED following in third as it's been steady through the week. It's a good bet that Steven Spielberg's WAR HORSE (which opened on Sunday) will also trot into the Top 5 as his other movie THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN will be busy battling with WE BOUGHT A ZOO for the family crowds that have already been CHIPWRECKED.

Being billed as the "feel-bad movie of the season" seems appropriate for THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO. If only audiences were in the mood to actually feel bad right now. The movie has already drawn out the Fincher faithful and some of the book's considerable readership, but it surely hasn't hit the expectations Sony had for a $90M R-rated movie based on a smash bestseller novel, and by the guy who directed last year's Oscar winner.

And the poorly reviewed NEW YEAR'S EVE will likely see a minor upswing just because it's still in theaters on the holiday it's named after, but most people would probably rather just get intoxicated than watch something toxic.

My shot at the Top 5 for the three-day period:

1. MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - GHOST PROTOCOL - $28.5M
2. SHERLOCK HOLMES: A GAME OF SHADOWS - $20.5M
3. ALVIN AND THE CHIPMUNKS: CHIPWRECKED - $16M
4. WAR HORSE - $15M
5. THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO - $10.5M

 

POST YOUR PREDICTIONS BELOW...!!!

Source: JoBlo.com

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7:44PM on 12/30/2011
I will definitely be checking out M:I 4 next week finally, shame about Dragon Tattoo, it was really good & much more faithful to the book, guess its really for the fans. Oh well ya can't win them all.
I will definitely be checking out M:I 4 next week finally, shame about Dragon Tattoo, it was really good & much more faithful to the book, guess its really for the fans. Oh well ya can't win them all.
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9:39AM on 12/30/2011

REALLY!?

Fincher directed The King's Speech!? Now I have to go rewatch that! ;)
Fincher directed The King's Speech!? Now I have to go rewatch that! ;)
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9:36AM on 12/31/2011
Social Network won Oscars outside of best film/best director...
Social Network won Oscars outside of best film/best director...
12:04PM on 12/31/2011
I still think it's a bit misleading to call it "last year's Oscar Winner." That suggests either A. it won best director/picture, or B. it was the only movie to win anything. As is, it's scored by an Oscar-winner from last year and directed by the guy who lost.
I still think it's a bit misleading to call it "last year's Oscar Winner." That suggests either A. it won best director/picture, or B. it was the only movie to win anything. As is, it's scored by an Oscar-winner from last year and directed by the guy who lost.