The last couple of weeks of August are typically a dumping ground, with studios often releasing lower-tier movies they don’t have huge hopes for in theaters. Usually, these weekends are devoted to modestly budgeted genre fare they hope will quickly cash in and cash out. That seems to be the thinking behind the release of the weekend’s two big movies, Insidious: Out of the Further and the Jason Statham action flick Mutiny.
The Insidious franchise has always been reliable as far as the box office goes. The champion remains Insidious: Chapter 2, which opened with a big $40 million. While the follow-ups haven’t matched that number, the last film, The Red Door, outgrossed the previous few films thanks to the return of original franchise stars Patrick Wilson (who also directed) and Rose Byrne, who sat out the third and fourth films. They aren’t back for Insidious: Out of the Further, but the reviews have been positive, with many calling it one of the better sequels. It should have no trouble scoring about $20 million and change.
The other big opener is Mutiny, starring Jason Statham. His box office performance is typically mixed. On the high end, his solo movies open in the teens, with The Beekeeper and A Working Man both getting great reviews and earning $16.5 million and $15.5 million, respectively (The Beekeeper legged out to $66 million and is getting a sequel). Yet other movies of his have had smaller openings, with the poorly received Expend4bles making $8 million and Shelter only nabbing $5.5 million. Mutiny will likely make in the $8 million range, with the issue being that the marketing hasn’t really been able to sell it as more than just another Statham action flick. It will likely become a hit on streaming but will have a small opening. It also doesn’t help that, in a boneheaded move, Amazon Prime actually leaked the film, posting it for free (accidentally) Wednesday morning for four hours. Yikes.
Spider-Man: Brand New Day will top the box office with another $35 million, while The Odyssey will likely slide in before Insidious with $13 million. The End of Oak Street should be able to make about $11 million, with a 50% or so decline from its opening likely. PAW Patrol could also slide in before Mutiny, which would consign Statham’s new flick to a distant sixth-place opening. Ouch.
Here are our predictions:
- Spider-Man: Brand New Day: $35 million
- Insidious: Out of the Further: $20 million
- The Odyssey: $13 million
- The End of Oak Street: $11 million
- PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie: $10 million
What are you seeing this weekend? Let us know in the comments.
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