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Summer 2015 Box Office Predictions + Summer Movie Preview Video

05.01.2015

The multiplexes are about to open their doors for another summer jammed with a relentless onslaught of expensive entertainment, all competing for the most attention and the biggest sacks of money.

While some choices seem obvious, it's never easy to estimate what exactly will connect with moviegoers, and what will get overlooked (or outright rejected) by audiences. Advanced buzz, repeat viewings and word-of-mouth business all factor heavily into which releases end up filling their vaults more than others, but summer is still always a difficult season to forecast.

After a series of computations using a complicated algorithm (okay, guessing), here are our predictions for this summer's domestic box office winners.

1. AVENGERS: AGE OF ULTRON

Joss Whedon assembled Marvel's heavy hitters for a second villain-smashing adventure, which is destined to join the THE AVENGERS as a monumental box office blockbuster. Word so far is that the sequel is bigger but perhaps not quite as satisfying as the first time the superheroes gathered, so even though its opening weekend could set a new record by surpassing the original's debut, it may not have the same amount of (super)power to ultimately propel it to the same high finish.

Prediction: $600 million

2. MINIONS

DESPICABLE ME 2 pulled in $368 million in 2013, and although Steve Carrel's benign baddie Gru was the primary focus of the first two movies, his chittering pill-shaped cohorts have become the breakout stars with countless toys and almost 29 million Facebook fans. Seems like the beloved henchmen don't even need an evil mastermind to serve in their spinoff movie, but they'll have one in Sandra Bullock.

Prediction: $320 million

3. JURASSIC WORLD

It's been 14 years since John Hammond's genetically resurrected dinosaurs last terrorized the big screen, and now they roam the earth again (or at least a new theme park) with recently crowned A-list hero Chris Pratt keeping them in check. And while the mighty scaled beasts will undoubtedly enter cinemas with great roar and rumble, it may not be enough to tromp on those little yellow Minions.

Prediction: $285 million

4. INSIDE OUT

None of Pixar's releases have come close to TOY STORY 3's incredible $415 million haul, but their new original feature does have director Pete Docter of UP and MONSTERS, INC. behind it. INSIDE OUT may not rise to the heights of Carl Fredericksen's balloon-powered home, but thanks to its colorful emotions and approachable concept, it should go on to become one of the studio's and the summer's bigger hits.

Prediction: $270 million

5. MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - ROGUE NATION

Even with a late summer release, Tom Cruise's fifth turn as secret agent Ethan Hunt should pack enough firepower to approach GHOST PROTOCOL's domestic finish. His underperforming EDGE OF TOMORROW and inclusion in a recent scathing documentary aren't likely to bother audiences who just want to witness the reliable superstar chasing enemy operatives and hanging from ridiculous heights.

Prediction: $200 million

6. ANT-MAN

Despite a lack of mainstream recognition and some behind-the-scenes controversy, Marvel's diminutive new screen hero should still pack in the crowds. If last summer demonstrated anything, it's that their brand and cool visuals can attract moviegoers who've never heard of the characters (although it certainly helps if they're bizarre yet engaging creations like a walking tree and a talking raccoon), and an amiable leading man like Paul Rudd definitely can't hurt.

Prediction: $190 million

7. TED 2

Seth MacFarlane got gunned down with last summer's dud A MILLION WAYS TO DIE IN THE WEST, but the return of his fuzzy foul-mouthed incarnation seems hard to resist for fans of the original. The second adventure of stuffed bear and Boston thunder-buddy Mark Wahlberg probably won't find the first TED's surprise success, but summer does seem like the right time this kind of bad behavior.

Prediction: $180 million

8. SPY

Melissa McCarthy didn't have a hit with last summer's TAMMY, but her fortune should change after reuniting with Paul Feig, who directed her in smashes THE HEAT and BRIDESMAIDS. While her CIA agent is the focus of this action-comedy, she'll be assisted by a game cast that includes Jude Law, Rose Byrne and Jason Statham. Feels like the potential summer breakout.

Prediction: $170 million

9. MAD MAX: FURY ROAD

The idea of Tom Hardy stepping into the boots of Mel Gibson's post-apocalyptic wanderer may give some a sour taste, but director George Miller's glorious fuel-injected lunacy practically demands attention. With FURY ROAD, Max Rockatansky (along with fellow wasteland warrior Charlize Theron) seems ready for a mainstream success three decades beyond Thunderdome.

Prediction: $160 million

10. TERMINATOR GENISYS

Arnold Schwarzenegger has flopped hard at the box office since leaving politics, and early reaction to his latest cyborg effort has been lukewarm. Still, even the dizzying time-twists and a lousy title seem unlikely to overcome the franchise familiarity for anyone who associates Arnie and James Cameron's two classic sci-fi films. A prime position on July 4th weekend should also help nudge it into the summer's Top 10.

Prediction: $150 million

WILD CARDS

FANTASTIC FOUR - The new version of Marvel's famous family looks like a dour affair, but that direction could end up being a shrewd counterbalance to Marvel Studios' more vibrant and spirited offerings.

PIXELS - Outside of his animated HOTEL TRANSYLVANIA, Adam Sandler hasn't exactly burned up the box office in the past few years. It's possible this movie's sky-high concept and nostalgia for familiar 80s videogame characters will change that.

SAN ANDREAS - Dwayne Johnson is often the best part of an ensemble, but the performance of his solo movies hasn't been nearly as muscular as the man himself. Will the addition of spectacular mass-scale catastrophe be the answer?

VACATION - Another Griswold family takes over for a new disastrous holiday, and the R-rated road trip could have enough raunchy laughs to let it coast to a WE'RE THE MILLERS sized success.        

TOMORROWLAND - Director Brad Bird's original sci-fi adventure looks intriguing, but can it connect with wider audiences in a summer of superheroes, spies, dinosaurs and destruction?

Who do you think will reign supreme at the box office this summer? Give us your predictions below! And check out our 2015 Summer Preview Video if you need refreshing!

CLICK IMAGE TO OPEN GALLERY & SEE MORE PICS...

Source: JoBlo.com

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2:12PM on 05/01/2015

I doubt it....

I don't think AoU is even going to make $600 million domestic. It's going to open huge (at least $200 million), but the reviews are a full 20% lower than the first, and a movie simply can't get to those numbers without enormous repeat viewings. Most movies lose 50% per week. If that happens to AoU, it will stall out between $400-$500 million. It's one big plus is an unopposed 2nd week, but Mad Max will definitely take wind out of it's sales in week #3. The rest of the list seems solid,
I don't think AoU is even going to make $600 million domestic. It's going to open huge (at least $200 million), but the reviews are a full 20% lower than the first, and a movie simply can't get to those numbers without enormous repeat viewings. Most movies lose 50% per week. If that happens to AoU, it will stall out between $400-$500 million. It's one big plus is an unopposed 2nd week, but Mad Max will definitely take wind out of it's sales in week #3. The rest of the list seems solid, except I'm not sure that Minions will score that high. It would have to be above 80% on reviews to see families coming out again and again. HTTYD 2 (a very good movie and a sequel) only pulled $177 million. I would be shocked to see Minions do better.
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11:37AM on 05/01/2015
I'll be spending a lot of money this summer at the movies.
I'll be spending a lot of money this summer at the movies.
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2:14PM on 05/01/2015
I only count 5 (maybe as many as 7) movies I'll see in the theater (unless I find myself really bored and it's the cheapest option to kill a couple of hours).

Last summer had more than that by the 2nd week of June.
I only count 5 (maybe as many as 7) movies I'll see in the theater (unless I find myself really bored and it's the cheapest option to kill a couple of hours).

Last summer had more than that by the 2nd week of June.
11:27AM on 05/01/2015
This was a horribly predicted list.
1) Mad Max: Fury Road will definitely be higher than 9 in the overall box office at the end of the summer. It will certainly beat the likes of "Spy" and "Ant-Man"
2) Tomorrowland will at least crack the top ten. I can't say with any certainty that it would be at the top of the list. But a summer Disney blockbuster with that kind of scale and starring George Clooney will definitely get the family's out to the theatre on Fridays/Saturdays. I would have
This was a horribly predicted list.
1) Mad Max: Fury Road will definitely be higher than 9 in the overall box office at the end of the summer. It will certainly beat the likes of "Spy" and "Ant-Man"
2) Tomorrowland will at least crack the top ten. I can't say with any certainty that it would be at the top of the list. But a summer Disney blockbuster with that kind of scale and starring George Clooney will definitely get the family's out to the theatre on Fridays/Saturdays. I would have put Tomorrowland at 7 or 6 on this list.
3) I think Minions will be a lot lower. I get there is a huge fanbase for the characters, but no way it's coming second place over Jurassic World; MI: Rogue Nation; Mad Max; Terminator; Ted 2; Inside Out; Ant-Man; or Tomorrowland. Sorry, but there are more geeks and average movie-goers interested in seeing the summer blockbusters on the big screen than there are parents wanting to take their kids to a Minions movie. 29 million Facebook likes so people can share memes does not translate to box office numbers.
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2:17PM on 05/01/2015
"But a summer Disney blockbuster with that kind of scale and starring George Clooney will definitely get the family's out to the theatre on Fridays/Saturdays."

Yeah, I seem to recall them saying that about John Carter....

Mad Max will be held down by the R rating. If it's R because of violence, then you'll still see parents taking kids (at least teens), but if it's R because of sex (there seems to be a plot about female slavery) or excessive language, then it will lose a ton of potential
"But a summer Disney blockbuster with that kind of scale and starring George Clooney will definitely get the family's out to the theatre on Fridays/Saturdays."

Yeah, I seem to recall them saying that about John Carter....

Mad Max will be held down by the R rating. If it's R because of violence, then you'll still see parents taking kids (at least teens), but if it's R because of sex (there seems to be a plot about female slavery) or excessive language, then it will lose a ton of potential business. I don't know about 9th on this list, but I've seen stranger things.
2:43PM on 05/01/2015
agreed about Mad Max.....unfortunately what looks uber major appealing to US is not necessarily what is major appealing to the general movie going audience.
agreed about Mad Max.....unfortunately what looks uber major appealing to US is not necessarily what is major appealing to the general movie going audience.
10:51AM on 05/01/2015
Avengers: Age of Ultron will easily win the summer, but Star Wars will win for the year.
Avengers: Age of Ultron will easily win the summer, but Star Wars will win for the year.
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2:49PM on 05/01/2015
I will bet you a billion imaginary dollars that F&F will out gross AOU
I will bet you a billion imaginary dollars that F&F will out gross AOU
6:02PM on 05/01/2015
The_ConMan: You shouldn't do that.
The_ConMan: You shouldn't do that.
6:25PM on 05/01/2015
ConMan is right. AoU will stall out much lower than The Avengers. The reviews are lower, it's a darker film (less kids clamoring for repeat viewings), and we've had so many superhero films that it doesn't have the same kind of insane edge that the first one did. It will obviously do great, but it will make considerably less than F&F 7 or Star Wars.
ConMan is right. AoU will stall out much lower than The Avengers. The reviews are lower, it's a darker film (less kids clamoring for repeat viewings), and we've had so many superhero films that it doesn't have the same kind of insane edge that the first one did. It will obviously do great, but it will make considerably less than F&F 7 or Star Wars.
10:49AM on 05/01/2015
It's a pretty easy summer to guess the #!, below that there are more questions. Mad Max may do well judging from how well the last Fast &Furious did. Terminator and Jurassic both do not seem to be getting interest., same with San Andreas but hard to judge how well they'll do outside the US. Fantastic Four and Ant-Man will likely do well. The real Wild Cards are kids films and comedies. Kids films can hang on for weeks in top 10 and we've seen some of the worst comedies do big business.
It's a pretty easy summer to guess the #!, below that there are more questions. Mad Max may do well judging from how well the last Fast &Furious did. Terminator and Jurassic both do not seem to be getting interest., same with San Andreas but hard to judge how well they'll do outside the US. Fantastic Four and Ant-Man will likely do well. The real Wild Cards are kids films and comedies. Kids films can hang on for weeks in top 10 and we've seen some of the worst comedies do big business.
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2:22PM on 05/01/2015
You have to be careful comparing F&F to other action movies. They make them a little sexy, but it's mostly family fun action. I don't see that kind of tone from Mad Max, and if it's too risque for families, then the box office won't even be in the same ballpark.

You have to be careful comparing F&F to other action movies. They make them a little sexy, but it's mostly family fun action. I don't see that kind of tone from Mad Max, and if it's too risque for families, then the box office won't even be in the same ballpark.

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