Box Office Predictions: Bullet Train has a ticket to the number one spot

Box office predictions, bullet train, number one, number one spot, brad pitt

The summer movie box office officially simmers down with the release of Bullet Train, starring Brad Pitt, and a slew of recognizable faces that should make this a fun offering for moviegoers.

Although adapted from a 2010 novel by Japanese author Kotaro Isaka, Bullet Train will play primarily as an original film because many causal moviegoers aren’t familiar with the source material. The big sell here is the high-octane action and Brad Pitt, who is leading a fun ensemble cast that all appear to have had a blast making the movie. The film looks like check your brain at the door entertainment that will appeal nicely to its primary male demo of 18-45-year-olds.

Pre-sales for the film have been encouraging the last few weeks, and it’s currently pacing ahead of last August’s Free Guy ($28.4 million opening), and that film opened when theaters weren’t as strong due to the pandemic. The pre-sales are also well ahead of The Suicide Squad ($26.2 million opening), and that film debuted on streaming and in theaters as a day-and-date release. All signs point to Bullet Train knocking on $30 million’s door.

Before coming into these predictions, I was pretty sure I was going to peg this for a $45 million opening but the reviews, as of this writing, are a bit mixed at 58% rotten on Rotten Tomatoes. This might not play a huge factor for the film this weekend, but if the film’s action and narrative are TOO over the top, it’s possible it could alienate some of the audience. Considering all this, I still think Bullet Train will have a solid opening of about $35 million this weekend.

DC League of Super-Pets will slide to second this weekend and may see a larger than normal decline for an animated film because of its softer than expected debut last week. The weekday numbers have been decent but not on the level of something like Minions: The Rise of Gru, which has dominated with families and kids since opening over the Fourth of July weekend. I’m predicting about $12 million for weekend two for DC League of Super-Pets.

Nope will settle for third, and it’s getting competition directly from Bullet Train, so some of that audience will now move on to Brad Pitt’s latest. The good news is that Nope will likely hit $100 million by the end of the weekend, a significant milestone for any film in this genre. I’m predicting about $9.9 million for Nope this weekend.

Thor: Love and Thunder will take fourth place as it continues to level off a bit after some steep drops over its first two weekends. The positive spin here is that despite the polarizing reaction to the film and its sizable drops, the movie has grossed beyond the $300 million mark so far, and that’s a win for Marvel. I’m predicting about $8 million for Thor: Love and Thunder this weekend.

Minions: The Rise of Gru will take fifth place this weekend and continue its impressive box office run with another solid hold. The film held up well against DC League of Super-Pets last weekend and will maintain its position as the top choice for families and kids at the box office. Minions: The Rise of Gru should see about $7.5 million this weekend.

What are YOUR box office predictions for this weekend?


  1. Bullet Train$35 million
  2. DC League of Super-Pets$12 million
  3. Nope $9.9 million
  4. Thor: Love and Thunder $8 million
  5. Minions: The Rise of Gru$7.5 million

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