The Smashing Machine is supposed to be Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson’s crowning achievement as a movie star. He’s earned raves (including from us) for his performance as MMA legend Mark Kerr, with many predicting an Oscar nomination. It’s A24’s biggest release of the year and, after expensive flops like Death of a Unicorn and Opus, it was widely seen as their best shot at a genuine box office hit. Everything pointed to a number-one opening…
But then came Taylor Swift. Just a few weeks ago, it was announced that she would be releasing The Release Party of a Showgirl, a surprise project tied to her new album. No one really knows what the movie is—it hasn’t screened for critics yet (though our man Steve Seigh will check it out tomorrow and post his review). Still, given the historic success of The Eras Tour film, there’s no question that Swift will dominate the weekend box office. This one won’t have the limited showtimes of Eras, but since it’s not a concert film, I don’t expect it to match the $90 million opening. Even so, her fans should push it to a hefty $40 million debut.
Where does that leave The Smashing Machine? Well, the good news for A24 is that Johnson’s star power guarantees an audience. A second-place opening in the $15 million range is likely, which is respectable for an arthouse release. However, it will face stiff competition from Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another, which is earning rave reviews and holds an “A” CinemaScore. That kind of word of mouth suggests strong legs, and it could very well end up neck-and-neck with The Smashing Machine in the $13 million range.
Meanwhile, family audiences will continue to flock to Gabby’s Dollhouse, which should hold steady in week two with about $8 million. As for horror fans, The Conjuring: Last Rites is expected to creep ahead of Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle for the final spot in the Top 5, earning around $4 million. That said, IFC and Shudder’s Good Boy might make a surprise entry into the top 5, as everyone loves a dog movie (including our own Tyler Nichols), although the 72-minute running time is a little scant for a full price ticket.
Box Office Predictions:
- Taylor Swift: The Release Party of a Showgirl – $40 million
- The Smashing Machine – $15 million
- One Battle After Another – $13 million
- Gabby’s Dollhouse – $8 million
- The Conjuring: Last Rites – $4 million
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