Box Office Predictions: The Woman King to Slay First Place

The third week of September finally brings a glimmer of hope to the box office in the form of Viola Davis and her film The Woman King. Full disclosure, this isn’t my type of movie, I like some warrior movies, but they aren’t the type of films I rush out to see. However, being a fan of Viola Davis, I would be lying if I said I wasn’t intrigued by seeing her in the type of role we have never seen her play before. I think you combine that level of curiosity among moviegoers and the film’s quite solid reviews. You have a recipe for the first film to open in the $20 Million range since Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero did nearly a month ago. The studio is playing it slightly more modest, saying The Woman King is only tracking to open around $12 Million.

Just six months ago, we were treated to an amazingly unique vision of terror in Ti West’s X. Proving to be quite the genius independent filmmaker, West and leading lady Mia Goth would film the prequel Pearl back to back with X to have it in theaters in time for the Halloween season. Reviews for Pearl have been solid, with our own JimmyO calling it a “shining jewel in horror.” As these films are more independent, I’m not expecting a shocking opening number. X managed just over $4 Million in its opening weekend. I think Pearl’s opening will be about the same, maybe slightly better, given the fact that many people seem to have discovered X after it had left theaters, and those people may not want to miss out on being scared in a dark theater amongst strangers with this one!

The next new release this weekend is the Fox Searchlight. Oh wait, it isn’t “Fox” Searchlight anymore. It is just “Searchlight.” Searchlight’s release of See How They Run featuring Academy Award winner Sam Rockwell and Adrien Brody alongside Academy Award nominee Saoirse Ronan in a film critics call a “fun whodunit.” Sadly, I haven’t seen much advertising for this one outside of the theatrical trailer, which I thought looked really good. Because of that, I’m not sure how many people actually know about this one, and that will definitely put a damper on its box office prospects. I would honestly be surprised if it opens above $4 Million.

Opening on 170 Imax screens this weekend is the incredibly well-reviewed David Bowie documentary Moonage Daydream that our own Chris Bumbray was lucky enough to see at the Toronto International Film Festival, where he called it “Amazing” and said that it “begs to be seen in the biggest and best theater you can find.” Of course, with just those 170 screens and a very specific audience, I can’t see this one cracking $1 Million this weekend and more than likely not even making it into the top ten. Of course, as a Bowie fan (Space Oddity and Starman are two of the greatest songs ever written, in my humble opinion), I will be venturing out to see this one before it leaves theaters.

The last new release of the week is one that is getting a limited Fathom Events release, and that is Kevin Smith’s trilogy capper Clerks III. I was lucky to see this film last weekend when Kevin Smith stopped by the Warner Theater in Washington D.C on his Convenience Tour, and I must say that it is a tremendous finale to the Clerks franchise. It combines the trademark Kevin Smith humor and dialogue with some genuinely heartfelt moments that will have you wishing you brought tissues.

JimmyO and I seem to agree on this one, as in his 9 out of 10 review he said, “it’s riotous, charming, silly and more importantly, it breaks your heart.” Even with Lionsgate and Fathom Events expanding the film’s release to play through the weekend, this one will still not crack the top ten, as it only has one 7 pm showing each day. However, that one showtime has the potential to pull in decent numbers, and, hopefully, it does because it returns Smith and company back to the Quick Stop in a triumphant fashion. 

The remainder of the top ten will be your summer holdovers Bullet Train, Top Gun: Maverick, and DC’s League of Super-Pets, along with the second weekend of horror film Barbarian that should have a decent hold throughout the Halloween season. 

Will you be venturing out to theaters this weekend? Let us know what you plan on seeing in the comments, and don’t forget to check back on Saturday when we give an update on the box office numbers.