With A Minecraft Movie an unexpected runaway smash hit (it opened bigger than Barbie), no one is expecting any of the three major new releases to pose much of a threat to its continued reign at the top of the box office heap. Given how much of a cultural phenomenon it has become, the movie should have no problem grossing about $70 million this weekend, which is what box office forecasters anticipated it would make on its FIRST weekend.
But where does that leave the weekend’s new releases? All four movies – Warfare, Drop, King of Kings and The Amateur – have received decent enough reviews, but none of them really has a chance at opening above the teens. The one most likely to open in second place is Angel Studios‘ The King of Kings, which had a star-studded voice cast and is the highest pre-selling movie for the faith-based studio since Sound of Freedom. These faith-based films can sometimes pull in a crowd, and if Angel can appeal to non-devout audiences as well, they have a great chance at pulling off their biggest hit in a while.
Third place should go to The Amateur, based on the fact that Disney (which is releasing the movie through 20th Century Studios) has premium formats available. It should open with $12 million, while A24’s Warfare, which has a hot young cast, should do about $10 million. That said, given the similarities between the two films, the fun Blumhouse thriller Drop could pull ahead because it’s a date movie and boasts a performance by fast-rising star Brandon Sklenar. No one expects it to open north of $8 million, but as William Goldman always said, “nobody knows anything.”
Here are my predictions:
- A Minecraft Movie: $70 million
- The King of Kings: $18 million
- The Amateur: $12 million
- Warfare: $10 million
- Drop: $8 million
What do you think will top the box office this weekend? Let us know in the comments!
