Box Office Predictions: Beyoncé, John Woo & Godzilla fight for box office supremacy

This weekend sees an iconic figure of entertainment return to grace our movie theaters with the presence of their sheer awesomeness. But enough about John Woo returning to American theaters with his Christmas themed revenge tale Silent Night, we are also getting the Beyoncé concert film/ documentary Renaissance: A Film By Beyoncé.

Coming off the success of Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour, which has amassed a domestic record (for a concert film) $178.2 million (with a $248.9 million worldwide total, about $13 million shy of the all time concert film record set by Michael Jackson’s This Is It) comes the second concert film to be released directly by AMC Theaters, bypassing a major studio for its release. 

Unlike The Eras Tour Movie, which was a straight up concert film, Renaissance is more of a hybrid concert film/ documentary, in the vein of Michael Jackson’s This Is It, that weaves together background footage of the tour with the actual concert. Obviously the two closest comps for this title are Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour which opened to a near record setting debut of $92.8 million a month and a half ago, and Michael Jackson’s This Is It which saw a domestic debut of $23.2 million in 2009. Current tracking has Renaissance sitting closer to that Michael Jackson opening with a $20 million start.

I will be honest, Beyoncé isn’t in my wheelhouse of music. I do enjoy the song “Halo” but that and “Single Ladies” are probably the only two songs I could name by her. If Between The Buried and Me or Powerwolf put out a theatrical concert film, I would be there on opening night! I even have a bit of experience with this tour as I recently took a trip to Las Vegas where I stayed at the Luxor Hotel on the same weekend that this tour was at the Allegiant Stadium for two nights. The hotel was filled with hundreds if not thousands of Beyoncé fans and I remember looking out my window about an hour before the concert began and seeing the swarm of people walking to the stadium. It is no wonder the tour has amassed over $579 million in ticket sales. But you know who sold more? Taylor Swift! Her Eras Tour has pulled in over $780 million in ticket sales.

That difference in concert ticket sales is going to carry over into movie ticket sales. Renaissance: A Film By Beyoncé (which she directed and produced) will not be the massive theater saving hit that Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour was, but it doesn’t have to be. A $20 million opening for this movie will still see it open in first place. While Beyoncé fans tend to skew a bit older than Swift fans, and that could mean solid legs for this movie as theater owners are in a scramble due to no surefire hits this holiday season. 

The next new release this weekend is one I mentioned in my opening, and for me, one I can not wait to see. John Woo returns to American screens for the first time since 2003’s Paycheck, a film title that lended itself to snarky headlines due to its lackluster critical reception. Of course prior to Paycheck, Woo was responsible for one of my personal favorite action films ever made: Face/Off. Sure, it was outlandish, but it was also 139 minutes of pure unfiltered bad ass!

Woo is a visual story teller, the words often times don’t matter as much as what you are witnessing. That is why this film, which features no dialogue, is perfectly suited for the action maestro responsible for such amazing films as A Better Tomorrow, The Killer, Hard Boiled and Red Cliff: Parts 1&2. The closest comp for this movie would be last years Violent Night which opened in second place with $13.4 million, although Silent Night doesn’t seem to have the same momentum as that Santa meets Die Hard mash-up. Word of mouth will be key for this one, with critics saying the action set pieces in this one are worth the price of admission and our own Chris Bumbray calling it a decent comeback for the action auteur in his 7/10 review. I expect this one to finish out of the top five with an opening around $5 million and the potential to have small week to week drops as the holiday season ramps up.

Also releasing this weekend is Godzilla Minus One which is actually the 37th film in the Japanese Godzilla franchise and NOT part of the recent US remakes which recently expanded with the Apple+ series Monarch: Legacy of Monsters. It all gets a bit confusing, but basically if you like old school Godzilla, this movie is for you! The film, which is in Japanese with English subtitles, is getting a wide release in North America on over 2000 screens and is currently tracking to do in the high single digits. Of course sometimes great reviews can shine a light on a movie that may have otherwise gone unnoticed, and Godzilla Minus One certainly has those with some critics hailing it as one of the best Godzilla movies ever made while our own Tyler Nichols said it is a film that demands the big screen experience in his 8/10 review.

The final big screen new release of the week is the science fiction film The Shift from the faith based studio Angel Studios that saw massive success earlier this year with their controversial title Sound of Freedom. I have learned to never count out these faith based titles as their audiences tend to always show up. Although this one doesn’t look to be a Sound of Freedom level hit, an opening in the $4 million range isn’t out of the question. 

For the remainder of the top five you can expect last weeks surprise champ The Hunger Games; The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes to move down a spot with a drop in the 50-55% range while Napoleon will likely see a strong drop in the 60% range as its audience score shows an unimpressive 59%. That drop will see it compete with Disney’s Wish as that film looks to shake off those negative headlines from last week as it tries to recoup what it can from its massive $200 million budget.

Will you be heading to theaters this weekend? If so, let us know what you plan on seeing in the comments and don’t forget to check back with us on Saturday when we have a brief update on where the numbers are heading.

TOP FIVE PREDICTIONS

1. Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé– $20 Million
2. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes– $14 Million
3. Napoleon– $9 Million
4. Wish– $8.5 Million
5. Godzilla Minus One– $8 Million