As we predicted earlier this week, the industry box office forecasts suggesting John Krasinski’s IF was going to open in the $40 million range were way off base. In my report, I figured the movie would be lucky to open with $30 million, and indeed, Deadline is reporting that’s the exact figure the movie is looking after a softer-than-expected Friday. The poor reviews (including one from me) aren’t doing Krasinski’s ambitious family film any favours. While it’s packed with stars, including Ryan Reynolds and Krasinski himself in front of the camera, and people like Steve Carell, Phoebe Waller-Bridge, Emily Blunt and more doing voices, the movie just isn’t connecting with the family audience. It’s looking to open only marginally better than The Fall Guy, which is already being consigned by Universal to VOD.
However, Renny Harlin’s The Strangers: Chapter 1, the first film in his already-shot trilogy, is opening much better than expected. It’s on track to make $12 million, which is a great result for a film with a budget in the high single digit range. The CinemaScore is C, which is average for a horror film, but the reviews have been brutal (although our own Tyler Nichols defended it vigorously in his horror live stream last night).
Finally, last weekend’s champ, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes will likely drop in the 60% range for a weekend between $23-25 million, which isn’t bad considering the mediocre B CinemaScore. On the plus side for IF, so far, it’s nabbed an excellent A score, meaning the people turning out to see it love it, so word of mouth could potentially be strong on this one. Focus Features’s Amy Winehouse biopic, Back To Back, is performing poorly, with it only on track for an opening in the $3 million range.
We’ll be back with a full box office report tomorrow. In the meantime, what are you seeing this weekend?
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