If you’d asked me a few days ago what I thought the number-one movie this coming weekend would be, I wouldn’t have hesitated: The Conjuring: Last Rites. However, while doing some research, I checked in with one of the best forecasting sites out there—BoxOfficePro—and to my absolute shock, they’ve got an anime film, Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle, pegged for the top spot with a massive $60–75 million opening. WTF?
Now, I know anime has been steadily growing in popularity in North America, but those numbers feel insane. That said, BoxOfficePro shouldn’t be underestimated—they get it right more often than not. Plus, Infinity Castle has already racked up over $200 million worldwide, so maybe I shouldn’t be so surprised.
Still, I have a hard time buying into those projections. My prediction? The Conjuring: Last Rites holds onto the number-one spot with around $35 million, while Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle comes in second with a very strong $25 million. I see Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale sliding comfortably into third with $20 million. That franchise has a built-in audience, and being billed as the grand sendoff will only help. The only caveat: Downton’s core fanbase skews older, and they’re not always first in line on opening weekend.
In fourth, I’m putting the Stephen King adaptation The Long Walk at around $12 million. The King name will draw people in, and if word-of-mouth is good, it could have legs. But its bleak tone might keep it from breaking out wider. Finally, I think Spinal Tap II: The End Continues will bring in its cult fanbase for about $7 million—enough to round out the top five and edge out holdovers like Weapons.
My Top 5 Predictions for the Weekend Box Office:
- The Conjuring: Last Rites — $35M
- Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle — $25M
- Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale — $20M
- The Long Walk — $12M
- Spinal Tap II: The End Continues — $7M
Am I way off base, or will this weekend play out just like I’m calling it? Let me know what you think in the comments!
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