Aquaman 2: Weak tracking makes theater owners expect a lump of coal at the Christmas box office

“Ho ho ho no,” is what theater owners are saying as predictions for this year’s Christmas box office could lead to disaster. It’s that magical time of the year when Phoenix Theatres puts all its eggs in one tentpole basket, banking on the success of a top-flight cinematic experience to carry the holiday on its mighty shoulders. In 2022, Phoenix doubled down on Avatar: The Way of Water, with Spider-Man: No Way Home being 2021’s selection, with Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker for 2019. This year’s horse is the DCEU sequel Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, which is currently tracking to make less than $45 million during its opening weekend in the United States. Woof!

According to Box Office Pro, Aquaman 2 is tracking toward $32-42 million during its opening weekend, with a domestic total range of $105-168 million. These numbers are suboptimal compared to previous years, with Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom failing to instill confidence in theater owners still trying to recover from the pandemic.

“You can’t look at the release schedule between now and the end of the year and find one movie that stands out like ‘Avatar’ as the big film,” says Phoenix Theatres owner Cory Jacobson.

“The holiday season is on the shoulders of ‘Aquaman,’ and that’s not a good shoulder to put anything on,” says Jeff Bock, an analyst with Exhibitor Relations. “Can it cut through the negative DC noise?”

The “DC noise” Bock mentions refers to the underperformance of The Flash, Shazam! Fury of the Gods, and Blue Beetle. All three titles were affected by the pandemic in one way or another, with The Flash plagued by scandals related to its star, Ezra Miller.

Other films released around Christmas time include Wonka with Timothée Chalamet, Universal and Illumination’s Migration, A24’s sports drama The Iron Claw, and the musical adaptation of The Color Purple. Even with The Iron Claw being a potential contender for the Oscars season, Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom remains the most significant blockbuster of the holiday box office window.

“We’re seeing the collapse of these major franchises,” says Bock. “This year has proven that audiences do want original things. Hollywood can’t just put a roman numeral on things.”

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom could surprise us, but the chances of that happening feel slim. Some DC fans say people aren’t excited about the DCEU anymore because Warner Bros announced a reboot of the universe – spearheaded by James Gunn and Peter Safran – too soon. The universe lost momentum when fans got it in their heads that the latest string of DCEU movies won’t matter in the grand scheme. Gunn says a small group of characters will carry over into the new DCU, but it’s difficult to muster enthusiasm with the franchise’s future uncertain.

“Having failed to defeat Aquaman the first time, Black Manta, still driven by the need to avenge his father’s death, will stop at nothing to take Aquaman down once and for all,” the official synopsis for Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom reads. “This time Black Manta is more formidable than ever before, wielding the power of the mythic Black Trident, which unleashes an ancient and malevolent force. To defeat him, Aquaman will turn to his imprisoned brother Orm, the former King of Atlantis, to forge an unlikely alliance. Together, they must set aside their differences in order to protect their kingdom and save Aquaman’s family, and the world, from irreversible destruction.”

What do you think about the state of the Christmas box office this year? Will Aquaman 2 surprise everyone and become the hit of the season? Should theater owners bank on putting coal in their cash registers? Let us know what you think in the comments section below.