Box Office Predictions: Argylle set for a mid-teens debut (on a $200 million budget)

Last Updated on March 5, 2024

This weekend brings us the first new potential blockbuster since MLK weekend in mid-January with Matthew Vaughn’s Argylle. One thing is for sure – the movie is all but certain to end Mean Girls and The Beekeeper’s run at the top of the box office heap, with both movies flip-flopping during the week between first and second place. However, Argylle, which is meant to launch a new super spy franchise for Vaughn, and boasts one of the starriest casts of the year, is also looking at a very mild debut in only the mid-teens.

Just a few weeks ago, Box Office Pro had the film opening in the $25-30 million range, which still would have been soft for a movie that costs this much, but according to a recent report by Deadline, the outlook has gotten more dire. Indeed, they’re expecting a high teens debut, but in our own weekend predictions, we think it’ll do around $15 million.

A few things to note – while this seems like a disastrous opening for such a big-budget movie, Argylle is a production of Apple Original Films. Universal is only distributing the film, so it might help to think of this as advertising for its eventual streaming debut. It’ll undoubtedly bring in plenty of viewers on the platform, but it also seems like a risky bet, considering it costs so much money. If it’s getting a wide release and only opens in the teens, it’ll carry the reputation of being a flop – unfairly or not.

However, there’s also a chance that Argylle could be great and generate tremendous word of mouth. The early reviews are positive (we’ll run our review tomorrow), and audiences could turn it into a sleeper hit. We’ll have to wait and see, but it seems odd that a movie starring Henry Cavill, Sam Rockwell, Samuel L. Jackson, John Cena. Bryan Cranston and Bryce Dallas Howard seem like such a gamble. A movie like this would have been an event a few years ago.

Otherwise, I expect the limited release of the Christian TV show The Chosen to open in second place with around $7 million (this show is a consistent theatrical performer, and Angel Studios knows how to market to their audience). Expect Mean Girls and The Beekeeper to be in 3rd and 4th place, while Wonka should round out the top five as it winds down its theatrical run.

Here are the predictions:

1. Argylle: $15 million
2. The Chosen: $7 million
3. The Beekeeper: $4.5 million
4. Mean Girls: $4.4 million
5. Wonka: $3 million

How do you think Argylle will do? Let us know in the comments.