Box Office Predictions: Lyle, Lyle Crocodile looks to dethrone Smile; Amsterdam tracking poorly

This weekend sees a pair of new releases targeting vastly different audiences. Amsterdam, the latest from Academy Award nominated (yet never won, oddly) filmmaker David O. Russell boasts an impressive cast with names such as Christian Bale, Margot Robbie, John David Washington, Anya Taylor-Joy, Chris Rock and of course Taylor Swift, in addition to a host of other big names. All of them obviously jumped at the opportunity to work with David O. Russell, even if headlines about the director aren’t always the best!

Russell seemed to be a bit of a semi-uncommerical filmmaker (remember I Heart Huckabees?) until 2010 when The Fighter launched him into the stratosphere when it was nominated for 6 Academy Awards, winning 2, and grossed an impressive $129 Million worldwide. That success would carry over in his subsequent films with his last release, 2015’s Joy opening wide to $17 Million. 

Amsterdam seems to be a bit of different beast. Reviews so far have painted this as an over convoluted mess and the trailers have been a bit confusing in conveying what the movie is actually about. Mix that with the fact that adult audiences, for which this film is geared towards, tend not to rush out to theaters, especially in the days of Covid. I would be surprised if this one opens with any more than $11 Million as this is the type of film that could have benefitted from strong reviews which it simply doesn’t have.

Fighting for the top of the box office this weekend will be the holdover Smile which opened above everyone’s expectations last week with $22 Million and has been pulling in solid numbers all week long. Generally a B- Cinemascore is the death knell for a movie, but this one seems to be garnering strong word of mouth in spite of that score. Case in point: a friend of mine saw it a few days ago and texted me after and said that it was surprisingly better than the trailers made it out to be. I’d expect Smile to have a relatively small drop this weekend and finish with around $12 Million.

The other film fighting for the top spot is the new family musical Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile featuring Constance Wu, Scoot McNairy, the voice talents of Shawn Mendes and Academy Award Winner Javier Bardem in a role unlike I think I have ever seen him in before. Tracking on the film has been relatively quiet, but that is because family films like these tend to do most of their business with walk up sales. With that said, I can see this one eking out a victory this weekend with over $15 Million. 

The remainder of the top 5 should go to the continuing successful run of The Woman King and the movie that seemed to be everywhere… until it was actually released: Don’t Worry Darling. 

Let us know in the comments if you plan on heading to theaters this weekend and don’t forget to check back on Saturday when we have a brief update on the box office numbers.


Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile$15 Million

Smile$12 Million

Amsterdam$11 Million

The Woman King$4.5 Million

Don’t Worry Darling$2.5 Million

About the Author

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Brad grew up loving movies and wanting to work in the industry. Graduated from Full Sail University in 2007 before moving to Los Angeles where I was fortunate enough to join SAG-Aftra in 2012. I love every second I get to write about movies for Joblo!