Opening weekend box office predictions for The Batman

After various production and release date delays due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Matt Reeves’ highly anticipated The Batman is finally hitting screens this weekend. As the box office continues to recover, all eyes will be on how well the film performs this weekend to signal that future tentpole releases can survive in an uncertain big screen climate.

The Batman represents a new take on the beloved and iconic DC Comics character that has been through several live-action iterations on the big screen. Matt Reeves has decided to take a noir and detective movie approach that is more in line with the roots of the original source material but might be a bit more foreign to casual moviegoers. The brand recognition alone makes The Batman a potentially formidable force at the box office this weekend and beyond but there are factors that play into how huge the film will be out of the gate.

The Batman first made headlines with the casting of Robert Pattinson as Bruce Wayne/Batman which made some fans wonder why director Matt Reeves would dare cast the guy from Twilight as the Caped Crusader. Those fans who only knew him for that polarizing franchise were unfamiliar with the fact that Pattinson began to show great promise in a series of indie films that were a true showcase of his talent. Some of us felt the casting choice was inspired from the start and we were immediately intrigued. The perfect storm this weekend will be between the fans seeing it who were unsure about him and those of us who felt he was right for this from the start. The curiosity factor alone about Pattinson, both good and bad, is sure to drive ticket sales this weekend.

A return to a more grounded and darker tale will also intrigue moviegoers. Those who weren’t into the more fantastical elements of Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice and felt Christopher Nolan’s more realistic staging was more their vibe, will see The Batman as a return to form. That’s not to say that The Batman is a copy of The Dark Knight Trilogy as early reviews indicate it isn’t but, it does exist in a world that isn’t driven by out-of-this-world comic book elements. There is also less of a need to know about various aspects of the extended universe. The Batman is meant to stand on its own and should make even the most casual of moviegoers want to check it out because it’s not going to be bogged down by universe building.

Some of the signs posting towards the film’s potential success this weekend are a bit more obvious. Advanced IMAX screenings sold out almost immediately for domestic theaters and this signals that fans are ready to fill the seats to experience the movie in the best way possible. The film will also be taking over plenty of those screens this weekend from the box office champ of the last two weeks, Uncharted. This alone boosts its potential to earn some serious coin at the box office this weekend.

A lot of its opening weekend success will come down to word of mouth but at least the critical reviews are very strong heading into the weekend. The film is already certified fresh at 87% on Rotten Tomatoes as of this writing with a total of 183 reviews counted. The consensus reads, “A grim, gritty, and gripping super-noir, The Batman ranks among the Dark Knight’s bleakest — and most thrillingly ambitious — live-action outings.” This is what you want to hear as a Batman fan and what you would need to hear if you were a moviegoer on the fence. As expected, the fact that the film is already certified fresh has been shared all over social media so that everyone can see that the film is on the level critically (you can check out our review here).

The biggest challenge for The Batman will be its runtime. At 2 hours and 55 minutes, the film is very lengthy and that does put a limit on the number of showings that the movie can run in a single day. The long runtime might also turn off casual moviegoers who simply don’t want to spend that much time in a movie theater. If you fall in that camp, you may find it’s worth it to just wait the 45 days for the film to hit HBO Max to watch via streaming. Honestly, the runtime of The Batman is the biggest caveat at play here. Even some of the good reviews of the film call the length into question. I have no problem seeing a long film at theaters if it’s good but telling most to spend almost three hours in one location makes for a long evening.

All of these things considered along with box office tracking figures, I’m predicting a $125 million start for The Batman. There is potential to go higher if word of mouth is really strong this weekend and the runtime doesn’t present a huge issue. The film is tracking at $100 million for its opening ahead of the weekend and I have a feeling that figure is a little too low for a film that has this much buzz around it.

As for the rest of the top five, Uncharted will slip to second this weekend after spending two weeks in the top spot. Uncharted needed to pull in as much money as necessary ahead of The Batman and it did just that. The second weekend drop was below 50% and it may see a similar decline this weekend, even as it loses its IMAX screens to The Batman. I’m predicting about $13 million for Uncharted this weekend.

Channing Tatum’s Dog has tapped into the young female audience that has turned the film into a surprise hit the last weeks. The movie is likely to continue to be solid counterprogramming, especially in the face of The Batman and should see another decent hold this weekend. I’m predicting about $6 million for its third weekend.

Spider-Man: No Way Home has seen slim 23% weekend declines the last few weekends but I suspect the drop will be a tad higher this weekend in the face of The Dark Knight. At this point the film has made all the money it has needed to and then some so it’s basically hanging around until even more competition shows up. The film should hang out in fourth place with a gross of $4.7 million.

Rounding out the top give will be Death on the Nile. It has floated around this area of the chart the last couple off weekends and I don’t expect that to really change. I’m calling $3.1 million for the weekend.

Here again are our box office picks for the weekend: